With the U.S. government finally reopening after a six-week shutdown, investors are now turning their attention to the backlog of economic data due in the coming days. However, expectations for another Federal Reserve rate cut this year are fading. Futures markets now price the odds of a December cut at just over 50%, as policymakers signal they prefer to wait until the data picture becomes clearer.

The September payrolls report could be released as early as next week, but uncertainty remains around whether October jobs and inflation data can even be published, given disruptions to data collection during the shutdown. Boston Fed President Susan Collins — a centrist voice on the FOMC — warned that without clear signs of labor market weakness, she would be reluctant to support further easing.

Despite a weak 10-year Treasury auction on Wednesday, yields stayed contained. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent affirmed that longer-term issuance sizes would be kept steady and called for easing leverage rules that discourage banks from holding Treasuries. A three-week low in crude oil prices also helped, as both OPEC and the IEA flagged an expected surplus in global supply through next year.

The dollar slipped overnight, notably against the euro and the yuan. The yen rebounded from nine-month lows on concerns about currency intervention, though broader weakness pushed it to a record low against the euro.

On Wall Street, stocks were mixed: the Dow hit a new high thanks to sector rotation, while the Nasdaq fell again. AMD jumped 9% after outlining a $100 billion data-center revenue vision, and IBM touched a record on quantum-computing momentum, but big tech names like Amazon, Tesla, Palantir, and Oracle retreated on valuation worries.

U.S. futures were flat to slightly lower, but global equities fared better, with MSCI’s all-country index reaching another all-time high. Chinese markets outperformed ahead of key economic releases, supported by solid Tencent earnings and a stronger yuan.

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